Strategic Insights: Business Preview for the Week of March 25-29, 2024
“Next week is shaping up to be an eventful one for the global economy, with key macro data releases scheduled for India, the UK, and the US. The headlines are already buzzing with anticipation, as investors and analysts alike eagerly await the latest insights into these countries’ economic performance. From GDP growth and inflation figures to employment and trade data, the upcoming releases are expected to provide crucial clues about the health and direction of each nation’s economy. Stay tuned for more updates on what’s in store for the week ahead.”
It seems like the Indian benchmark equity indices have witnessed a surge in line with global markets, following the moderately hawkish stance taken by the US Federal Reserve. This has helped ease concerns over delayed rate hikes, which is a positive development. However, the IT sector faced a setback as Accenture revised its revenue guidance amid economic uncertainty, which briefly dragged down the markets before recovering.
Despite this, the market is poised to consolidate around current levels in the near-term without significant fluctuations, according to V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. In the global market, the US and Japanese markets hitting new record highs are indicative of ongoing support. Powell’s revised US GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 1.4% to 2.1% bodes well for the global economy.
Wall Street celebrated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks, propelling the S&P 500 to an unprecedented peak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite also reaching record levels. Meanwhile, Asian markets, including Seoul, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, closed notably higher, while Shanghai ended on a lower note. European markets also traded positively.
In IPO developments, SRM Contractors’ IPO is set to open on March 26 and conclude on March 28. With a subscription of Rs 130.20 crore, the offering comprises a fresh issue of 62 lakh equity shares, with no offer-for-sale component. The price band is fixed at Rs 200-210 per share.
In the Spotlight: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes - March 25th Edition:
In a recent move, the Bank of Japan announced its decision to increase its key short-term interest rate to approximately 0% to 0.1% from the previous -0.1%. This has marked a significant shift and has put an end to an eight-year era of negative interest rates. It will be interesting to see the market’s response to this change and how it impacts the economy in the long run. The release of the meeting’s minutes will provide a deeper understanding of the BoJ’s strategic maneuvers and will be eagerly awaited by economists and investors alike.
US FHFA: Housing Price Index Update:
In December, it seems like the housing market remained strong as the FHFA house price index increased from November’s figures. With January’s numbers soon to be released, experts are closely observing the trajectory of this important economic indicator as market dynamics and policy landscapes continue to evolve.
US Durable Goods Orders: It’s concerning to hear about the decline in new orders for manufactured durable goods in the US, especially after the small dip in December. I hope the figures for February show a more positive trajectory for this crucial economic indicator. It will be interesting to see the upcoming data and analyze what it means for the broader economy.
Wednesday (March 27) Boost or Bust? Unraveling Euro Area Consumer Confidence Trends:
It seems that the Euro Area consumer confidence indicator has increased slightly by 0.6 points to -15.5, as per the initial estimates. Although this is in contrast with the previous month’s reading of -14.9, it still provides some positive news for the Eurozone economy, which is eagerly awaiting the final reveal for more insights into the sentiment driving it.
Thursday (March 28) UK GDP Growth Rate:
The preliminary data on the British economy for Q4 2023 has delivered sobering news, with a contraction of 0.3% reported. This extends the decline from the previous quarter’s 0.1% dip and raises concerns about the UK’s economic performance. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the conclusive reading for Q4, hoping for some clarity on the trajectory of the economy.
US Initial Jobless Claims: There is a glimmer of optimism in the US labor market, as the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits has marginally declined by 1,000 to reach a total of 209,000 for the week ended March 8. The focus now shifts to the week ending March 16, as analysts closely monitor the evolving dynamics of the US labor market.
Friday (March 29)
India Foreign Exchange Reserves:
India’s efforts to bolster its economic resilience amidst global uncertainties seem to be paying off, as the country’s foreign exchange reserves have seen a notable uptick. The reserves have increased to $636.100 billion as of March 8, marking a significant rise from the previous week’s $619.070 billion. The forthcoming release of data for the week ending March 15 holds significance, as it will provide further insights into India’s economic performance and its ability to weather the ongoing uncertainties.
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